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At the final stage of the campaign for the November 19th run-off election Javier Milei appeared as the front-runner in most public opinion polls. However, few people believed that he could defeat Sergio Massa. Most Argentine political scientists have a weird belief in what I call "Peronist exceptionalism" according to which the laws of physics do not apply to Peronism. Some analysts truly believed that after a disastrous administration, responsible for having brought inflation to levels not seen in more than 30 years, Peronism would not pay an electoral cost. The result of the runoff showed that Peronism is not alien to the laws of physics.
A Massa victory would have been totally anticlimactic. In 45 years no ruling party in Latin America has managed to retain office with annual inflation exceeding 40% in the month of the election and with monthly inflation accelerating in the months prior to the election. Milei’s landslide defeat is explained not only by the poor performance of the Fernández administration and the bad economic outcome of Sergio Massa’s economic policy¡. There is a clear regional anti-incumbent wave taking place in Latin America. In the last 5 years only Paraguay's Colorado Party has managed to retain power in a democratic setting. Finally, there was clear evidence of Argentine society’s demand for change. The 31% support obtained by Javier Milei in the August 13 primaries was a first sign of this. The fact that Peronism had the worst performance in its history in a presidential election on October 22, despite having been the most voted force, is in the same sense revealing. Finally, the record of alternation at the sub-national level, where continuity is the rule rather than the exception, is another proof of the demand for change that led Milei to defeat Sergio Massa.
In the near term, governability is the key issue. Argentines elected as president an outsider, whose party has 10% and 15% of the Seante and Lower House seats respectively. In addition, La Libertad Avanza does not govern any of Argentina's 24 provinces. It is therefore reasonable to wonder how Javier Milei will govern. The alliance with former President Mauricio Macri will give him some additional support in Congress, but not enough to reach a third of either chamber. Milei could choose to try to rule resorting to legislative decrees and non-binding referenda. Opting for this course of action is extremely risky and could lead to a clash between the different branches of government. A second alternative lies in crafting ad-hoc majorities for each congressional bill. This option is time consuming and costly from an economic point of view. Finally, a more viable alternative is to broaden its coalition by adding elements of Juntos por el Cambio and Peronism. In this sense, the landslide victory over Sergio Massa opens a window of opportunity. Milei could add the support of those factions of Peronism that do not answer to Cristina Fernández de Kirchner leadership. This option clashes with Milei's campaign discourse and requires a great deal of political bargaining. Which of these options will Javier Milei choose? That is today’s million-dollar question.
